Proposed changes to Medicaid eligibility could result in 480,000 U.S. children losing dental coverage each year through 2034, generating nearly $87 million in additional healthcare costs over a decade, according to a new study by researchers at the Harvard School of Dental Medicine (HSDM).
Published in JAMA Network Open, the study used decision-analytic modeling and data from nearly 12,000 children to project oral health outcomes and costs linked to coverage disruption. Researchers estimate that coverage loss would also result in 95,799 additional cases of tooth decay in children over 10 years, as families unable to afford out-of-pocket costs forgo early treatment.
"Coverage loss doesn't make costs disappear -- it shifts them," said Dr. Sung Eun Choi, lead author and assistant professor in oral health policy and epidemiology at HSDM. "Children who lose Medicaid don't stop getting cavities; they stop getting treated early."
The findings come as work reporting requirements enacted under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act take effect, which researchers project will reduce Medicaid enrollment among children from low-income families.
